Talk about vacational activities: in the course of searching for something I'd linked to in here, I was mildly aghast to discover one post from last November marked with the dreaded, red-lettered sign of "draft." Hokey smokes! You mean I never published that?
It looks like I was looking for that one more, fateful link, and forgot this was in limbo. Not one to willingly let good effort go unused, I'm going to post it now since it's still as relevant an issue as then.
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The
Boston Globe's "
Business Filter" ran an
item yesterday
(11/1/06) on the (perhaps slightly self-serving) prediction of an ambitious podcaster that soon, "50% of all media consumed will be created by other consumers."
Naaaaah! IMHO, I just don't believe that most people have enough of the time and skill necessary to create stuff that's good enough to interest anyone beyond their family and friends. It takes a Huge amount of the former and a pretty fair amount of the latter to produce something that might appeal to any meaningful chunk of the Public, doesn't it?
The
Filter's
Maura Welch printed another ratio a while back that sounded a lot more accurate, which, to roughly paraphrase -- meaning, if I remember correctly -- was that out of 100 websurfers, one creates content, nine comment or add to it somehow, and the other 90 watch. (Hunting around for this link, which was a good one...)
Just look at any message board, a mature technology that should be trusted to show long-term behavior, that shows the ratio of messengers to lurkers, or the number of replies to a topic vs. the number of views. This may be the bottom of the ladder content-wise, but the root is usually a good place to start looking at something. (Yes, ladders have roots, too, so there's nothing wrong with that metaphor.)
I got involved in a discussion somewhere recently that showed 5 entries to over 1000 views of that topic. And that's in a medium where it's possible to create and post a message real quick-like, not like the development time required for anything more evolved, like videos, blogs, etc.
(Of course, I'll admit I still have some trouble relating to the term "podcasting" -- to me, "pods" first reminds me of what the Body Snatchers invaded in. And this is no laughing matter: look what they did to poor Donald Sutherland!)
Related, here:
"
The Voice & Videocams of the People"
"
The Limitations of "Free" Content"
"
Quoted again on Boston Globe's site, on 'Web 2.0' & American Idol"
"
The Thing About "User-Generated' Sites - YGWYPF?"